The Group of 5 finally broke through the glass ceiling in 2021. So what’s next?
We saw Cincinnati reach the College Football Playoff, something thought to be unobtainable for the G5. We saw Louisiana, UTSA and San Diego State set program records for wins. Five G5 teams finished ranked in the final AP poll, as did independent BYU.
Advertisem*nt
Another Playoff bid is likely not in the cards in 2022, given the number of factors that led to Cincinnati’s bid, but the G5’s New Year’s Six spot could be wide-open with a lot of strong teams. The 2021 season was full of “super-senior” players using an extra year of eligibility because of the pandemic, which largely benefitted G5 schools. That’ll be less impactful moving forward. The free one-time transfer rule has also resulted in a number of top G5 players looking for a home elsewhere. On the other hand, top coaches are set to return. Billy Napier left Louisiana for Florida, but that was the only notable departure.
On Tuesday, Stewart Mandel posted his early top 25. We’re not done with transfers and we may not even be done with coaching changes. Josh Heupel left UCF for Tennessee after this story a year ago, after all. But here’s an early look at the top 10 Group of 5 teams (plus non-Notre Dame independents) for 2022.
1. Cincinnati (13-1 in 2021)
The king is still the king, for now. Quarterback Desmond Ridder, running back Jerome Ford and All-American cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and Coby Bryant are gone, but head coach Luke Fickell is back. So is quarterback Ben Bryant, who transferred out to Eastern Michigan, had a solid season and transferred back in. Receivers Tyler Scott (30 catches) and Tre Tucker (34 catches) return as well, along with the entire offensive line.
The Bearcats have signed the top recruiting class in the Group of 5 for each of the past three classes, all ranked in the top 50 nationally. That depth will need to show up next season. Fickell has to replace a few coaches on staff, as offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock left for LSU and opened up the tight ends job (QB coach Gino Guidugli is expected to be promoted) and cornerbacks coach Perry Eliano left for Ohio State.
Advertisem*nt
The Bearcats were the clear G5 No. 1 going into 2021, and it played out that way. But 2022 could be a lot more open.
2. Houston (12-2)
Dana Holgorsen’s program turned the corner in a big way, reaching the AAC title game and closing with a bowl win against Auburn. Quarterback Clayton Tune somehow has another year of eligibility, and running back Alton McCaskill emerged as a freshman with 961 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. Wide receiver Nathaniel Dell’s 90 catches for 1,329 were more than double anyone else on the roster, and his return gives Houston an explosive core on offense.
Keeping rising star defensive coordinator Doug Belk was big, too. Some key starters must be replaced, but this defense has thrived on forcing negative plays with a strong front seven, and that’ll be the case again.
3. BYU (10-3)
The Cougars were among the least experienced teams entering 2021, but Kalani Sitake’s team replaced Zach Wilson and other 2020 stars with little problem, finishing 10-3 and ranked in the top 20 again. The 2022 team loses star running back Tyler Allgeier and leading receiver Neil Pau’u, but it will be led by quarterback Jaren Hall (2,583 passing yards, 23 total TDs) and receivers Gunner Romney (1,900 career receiving yards) and Puka Nacua (43 catches, 805 yards).
The defense started the year strong but struggled down the stretch in 2021, testing the depth. The good news is nearly every defensive starter is back, and that unit should be improved. With games against Oregon, Baylor, Notre Dame and Arkansas, next year’s schedule will be even tougher.
(As an independent, BYU is not eligible for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six spot)
4. UTSA (12-2)
Jeff Traylor has taken the Roadrunners to unprecedented heights in two seasons, and there’s no reason to think that’ll change. Quarterback Frank Harris (3,161 passing yards, 33 total TDs) will lead the offense again, with all of his top receivers set to come back, including Zakhari Franklin (81 catches, 1,027 yards) and Joshua Cephus (71 catches, 819 yards). Replacing star running back Sincere McCormick is the question.
Advertisem*nt
The defense will have to find several new starters, especially in the back end. The schedule opens with Houston at home and trips to Army and Texas, so they’ll have to be ready from the jump.
5. Appalachian State (10-4)
The Mountaineers lost in the Sun Belt championship game but have won at least nine games in seven consecutive years. Quarterback Chase Brice is back for another year after a solid season (school-record 3,337 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, 11 interceptions), cutting down on the turnovers that had plagued him. Sophom*ore Nate Noel emerged as the next great App State running back with 1,126 rushing yards, and Camerun Peoples is also among the best in the Sun Belt (more than 2,000 yards and 26 TDs over the past two years). The offensive question comes at receiver, where the top four are gone.
All-American cornerback Steven Jones will lead a defense that returns many key pieces but will need new ends to step up. The Mountaineers open the season with North Carolina at home, a trip to Texas A&M and a trip to Marshall.
RB Camerun Peoples is among many key players returning to App State. (Andrew Wevers / USA Today)
6. Coastal Carolina (11-2)
Head coach Jamey Chadwell is back, and so is quarterback Grayson McCall, who broke the FBS single-season record for pass efficiency and received interest as a potential transfer but chose to return by beautifully declaring, “When I say I piss teal, I mean it.” There are notable departures, including All-American tight end Isaiah Likely, All-Sun Belt running back Shermari Jones and leading receiver Jaivon Heiligh.
The defense must also replace a majority of starters on the back end. Freshman running back Braydon Bennett impressed (625 rushing yards, 8.6 per carry), but new pass-catchers will need to emerge.
7. Fresno State (10-3)
Not only is quarterback Jake Haener coming back after throwing for 4,096 yards (and entering the transfer portal), but top receiver Jalen Cropper is back as well after catching 85 passes for 899 yards and Jordan Mims will be the featured running back after rushing for 710 yards while splitting time. That’s a strong foundation for head coach Jeff Tedford, who returns after two years in which the Bulldogs were coached by Kalen DeBoer, who’s now at Washington.
The defense will have to replace a line that helped the Bulldogs finish 26th nationally in rush defense (3.5 yards per carry). Haener will be one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and the Bulldogs might be the Mountain West favorite come July.
Advertisem*nt
8. Utah State (11-3)
The Aggies were one of the biggest surprises in college football in 2021, going from 1-5 to 11-3 with a Mountain West championship and bowl win against Oregon State in head coach Blake Anderson’s first season. Former Arkansas State transfer QB Logan Bonner is back after passing for 3,622 yards. Star receiver Deven Thompkins, who finished second nationally with 1,704 receiving yards, left for the NFL, and the next two receivers are gone as well.
But running back Calvin Tyler Jr. (911 rushing yards) will return as a senior, and the Aggies are again pulling from the transfer portal, adding former Alabama receiver Xavier Williams among four Power 5 transfers thus far. The defense plugged holes with transfers in 2021, and those holes are open again. The defense will face the biggest questions. The Aggies have trips to Alabama and BYU within the first four games.
9. UCF (9-4)
Gus Malzahn’s team cobbled together a solid final record in 2021 when considering all the injuries to major contributors. The 2022 team should look more like a typical Malzahn outfit, and that starts at QB. Dillon Gabriel’s talent never quite fit the offense before his season-ending injury, and he transferred to Oklahoma. In comes Ole Miss’ John Rhys Plumlee, the QB/WR who will go back behind center. His running ability would seem to make him a good fit. Mikey Keene had an up-and-down freshman season when pressed into action after Gabriel’s injury and will be in the mix too.
The returning Isaiah Bowser and big-play back Johnny Richardson give the Knights a strong running back duo, and receivers Jaylon Robinson and Ryan O’Keefe will be joined by Auburn transfer Kobe Hudson, putting that position in a good spot as well. The defense improved from 2019 and returns almost every starter, so it should take a step forward. But UCF’s team success will come down to quarterback play.
10. San Diego State (12-2)
In typical SDSU fashion, the defense should be strong and the offense has questions. On offense, Brady Hoke said quarterbacks Jordon Brookshire and Lucas Johnson were not expected to return to the team. Johnson has already transferred to Montana, and Brookshire’s status is not clear. Meanwhile, 1,000-yard running back Greg Bell is out of eligibility. The QB position is wide-open for a pair of inexperienced backups and a pair of early-enrollee freshmen (or perhaps a transfer). Chance Bell is most likely to take over at running back.
On defense, SDSU must replace five starters, including All-American defensive end Cameron Thomas, but we’ve seen the Aztecs fill these holes and play solid defense time and time again. And just as important, SDSU must replace Matt Araiza, the Punt God who also handled field goals and kickoffs.
Just missed: Air Force, Army, UAB, SMU, Louisiana, Boise State, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan
(Top photo of Luke Fickell: John Bunch / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
