The Group of 5 Kings and Barons of college football: G5 mailbag (2024)

The dog days of summer are here, and we can finally stop talking about conference realignment and get into more fun stuff. That was evident with the fresh and new questions I got for the Group of 5 college football mailbag this time around. It was an exciting feeling, so let’s get into it.

Chris, Stewart Mandel refuses to include G5 teams in his Kings and Barons column. As a man of the people, can we get a G5 version? Obviously Cincy, Houston and UCF would be the Kings for now, but who would join them? Would you go full Mandel and omit newbies JMU, Sam Houston State, etc., from it? — Louis S.

Hey Chris, good day to you. For the sake of rational, civilized discourse here on The Athletic discussion board, I’d love your take on the tiers of G5. Not based on stuff like facilities and location and TV markets and auxiliary stuff like that, but based purely on past and present success and future outlook. Let’s not count the four Big 12 additions either. — Jim J.

I’m glad I got this question twice. I had been thinking about doing one of these anyway, but I didn’t want to come across as a pure copy of Stew’s long-running Power 5/BCS conference team tiers. So because I’ve now been asked, it makes for a great mailbag topic. I understand Stew doing his P5-only version, because there is a real hierarchy in the sport. But we of course do love the G5 as well here.

Because this is June 2022, I’m going off the June 2022 conference set-up. That means the future Big 12 schools are still here and the future FBS/G5 schools are not, though I was tempted to include North Dakota State at the minimum level of Baron, with all those FCS national titles. Alas, we’re sticking with today’s G5.

This is not necessarily a ranking of the best programs, either now, in the past or in the future. It’s about the brand. The cachet. It’s what people think when they hear a school’s name, who carries themselves in a different way. That typically comes with on-field success, but that’s not all of it.

So let’s look at the first edition of the G5 tiers.

Kings: Boise State, Cincinnati, Houston, UCF

These four schools account for six of the eight New Year’s Six or Playoff bids given to G5 teams in the CFP era, including all three wins, and Cincinnati just became the first G5 team to make the Playoff. The brands run farther back than the CFP, as Boise State had memorable BCS bowl wins and UCF beat Baylor in a Fiesta Bowl. It’s not hard to see why the Big 12 took the three AAC schools.

That also means that as of next year, only Boise State will still be a G5 team among this group. New Kings will have to emerge in the coming years. It won’t happen by default, as teams won’t slide up just because others are moving to the P5. The G5 as a whole takes a major hit by losing Cincinnati, Houston and UCF.

Barons: Air Force, Appalachian State, Army, Fresno State, Louisiana, Marshall, Memphis, Navy, Northern Illinois, San Diego State, SMU, UAB

The second tier is the group that hasn’t found the top-level success of the Kings. Memphis made the Cotton Bowl but has fallen back a bit since then. App State has annually hung around the Top 25 but hasn’t reached a New Year’s Six bowl yet. Louisiana has seven seasons with at least nine wins in the past 11 years, but the Ragin’ Cajuns also haven’t reached a New Year’s Six game. San Diego State has been a winning program for a decade, but it hasn’t quite broken through. UAB is a top C-USA program but has not yet reached the top of the G5.

The departures of Cincinnati, Houston and UCF provide the opportunity for these schools to get those bigger bowl bids in the future and move up to become Kings.

Navy was the toughest school to place in this group. Though the Midshipmen have reached just one bowl in the past four years, the Navy football brand remains strong and garners a lot of respect. Similarly, Northern Illinois and Marshall don’t have as much success in recent years as in previous runs, but there is a history of success to lean on.

Knights: Arkansas State, Ball State, Buffalo, Central Michigan, Coastal Carolina, Colorado State, East Carolina, Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Georgia Southern, Georgia State, Hawaii, Kent State, Liberty, Louisiana Tech, Miami (Ohio), Middle Tennessee, Nevada, North Texas, Ohio, Temple, Toledo, Troy, Tulane, Tulsa, USF, UTSA, Utah State, Western Kentucky, Western Michigan, Wyoming

This is the largest group. Teams in this bunch have had some level of success, but not consistently high success for extended periods of time. UTSA and Coastal Carolina were the most difficult to put in this group. They’re in the programs’ golden years and are among the best G5 programs right now, but we’ll need more than the past two years of success to move their brands up — something that’s very likely if their coaches stick around. FAU won two Conference USA titles under Lane Kiffin but has been average outside of that. Temple and WKU have had success, but neither has cracked the Top 25 since at least 2016. Nine of 12 MAC schools are in this group because the league is so even across the board.

Peasants: Akron, Bowling Green, Charlotte, FIU, New Mexico, New Mexico State, Old Dominion, UTEP, Rice, San Jose State, South Alabama, Southern Miss, Texas State, UConn, ULM, UMass, UNLV

The programs that have the furthest to go. Many have endured long periods of losing. Some are young programs with little history at all. Others are on an upswing, like Old Dominion, and San Jose State won the Mountain West in 2020, but it’ll take a period of success to move up.

Now, leave your angry reactions in the comments.

Most talented G5 RB heading into the upcoming season? — Cole H.

Central Michigan’s Lew Nichols III might be the most underrated running back in the country. He led the nation in rushing with 1,848 yards as a second-year player, one season after being the MAC freshman of the year. He also led the nation with 341 carries, and he’ll be the bell cow again after Kobe Lewis transferred to Purdue. Many people thought Nichols would transfer out after the season. Big Ten schools were interested. But he’s stuck with Jim McElwain and the Chippewas, a credit to Nichols and the CMU environment. Maybe he’ll get more national respect this year, and he’ll be eligible for next year’s NFL Draft.

Others include Marshall’s Rasheen Ali, who had 1,401 yards as a redshirt freshman last year, and UAB’s DeWayne McBride, who had 1,371 yards and averaged 6.7 yards per carry.

With the Power 5 conferences currently considering more conference games, could a G5 mega-conference come together to save a few of the more successful programs? (Similar to what the AAC attempted to do) — Benjamin I.

During the realignment drama of last summer/fall, some G5 administrators floated to me the idea of a G5 football-only super conference. It didn’t go farther than an idea, and the landscape settled pretty quickly. The AAC sort of tried it by approaching Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force and Colorado State from the Mountain West, but the logistics are pretty difficult to get past, even if schools could move their other sports into a non-football conference. The AAC also quickly dismissed a C-USA idea to reorganize with the AAC to create two more geographically sound conferences.

The idea of P5 conferences playing more P5 games will cut out some P5 vs. G5 games. Only the SEC and ACC still play eight conference games, and the SEC may change that soon when it adds Texas and Oklahoma. Some G5 leagues have considered moving to nine conference games, but that might be a last resort. Something like non-conference scheduling agreements between G5 leagues could be a way to create more interesting games. Some conference officials have mentioned the idea to me. But getting the AAC on board could be tough, considering its “P6” push and general desire not to associate itself as on the same level as the other leagues. AAC commissioner Mike Aresco wants his teams to schedule as many P5 games as possible and stick out from the rest of the G5, so a wide-scale agreement on G5 scheduling might not be of interest to them. Personally, I’d love it and I think it would be good for the sport.

Is Louisiana Tech football dead, or on the cusp of a renaissance of dominance? With conference foes leaving us and no real options for realignment, I could see our program with Sonny Cumbie becoming a perennial Conference USA winner, have a good OOC schedule and make noise in bowls, or we could fold the program and invest in basketball and baseball. — Matt W.

The program is most certainly not dead or folding. As much as being left out by the AAC and Sun Belt is a shot to its pride, there is an opportunity to become the top team in the new Conference USA. I see Louisiana Tech and Liberty as the teams best-positioned to be atop the revamped league. That success can grow a program as much as anything else. And to be honest, conference affiliation doesn’t matter at that level of recruiting. It’s either P5 or G5.

I think we’d all like to see non-conference games against Louisiana (Lafayette, ahem) and ULM, despite all the bad blood there. We finally had a La Tech-ULM game scheduled in 2020, but it got canceled due to COVID-19. With a lack of in-conference rivalries, it would be better for everyone to finally get over themselves and lean into those state rivalries, no matter what they’ve said about each other in the past. Again, it’ll help everyone.

Despite the general popularity of college football and the large TV contracts being signed, how concerned are conferences with in-person attendance lagging behind previous year’s numbers? — Joe D.

It’s a concern across all sports and it’s one reason you’ve seen Power 5 schools scheduling bigger non-conference games in recent years. College football has slowly been losing attendance across the country. Throw in inflation and it could be an even bigger issue this fall.

The bottom line is that almost all live sports have become primarily a TV show rather than an in-person event. Endless TV timeouts, late kickoff times out west and midweek games are all about maximizing TV revenue, which keeps getting bigger with live sports the most valuable product on TV these days.

This could provide the G5 for an opportunity to break free. The Mountain West several years ago looked at the possibility of making more fan-friendly kickoff times and passing on a major TV. But that national audience is still incredibly valuable to brands, and people don’t want to give that up. It’s a difficult spot to be in. With more and more games moving to paid-streaming only like ESPN+, could that help the kickoff time issue? Perhaps.

Officials have recently looked at ways to shorten the game, like more running clock after first downs or out of bounds. College games are longer than NFL games, and when you factor in travel, parking and concessions on top of that, schools need to make the in-person experience worth it. Maybe that means better seating. Maybe it’s better wifi. Or maybe that just means cheaper prices. College football games are unlike anything else in this country, but the TV experience continues to get better and better, and after fans spent the 2020 season at home, many don’t want to come back.

Can we get a breakdown of the current G5 TV deals and the timelines for when they will be renegotiated? — Brooks P.

Here is the current setup with general estimates of the per-school media rights payouts based on what I’ve heard and seen. (Note, these are not the total conference payouts.) Renegotiations begin a year or so before the deals end.

AAC: ESPN through 2031-32 (around $6 million per school annually)

Conference USA: ESPN/CBS/Stadium through 2022-23 (around $500,000 each)

MAC: ESPN through 2026-27, CBS through 2022-23 (around $600,000 each)

Mountain West: Fox/CBS through 2025-26 (around $4 million each)

Sun Belt: ESPN through 2030-31 (Somewhere between $500,000 and $1.2 million each)

The new AAC will have a different payout setup after realignment. The remaining eight AAC schools are likely to receive a similar payout, but the six new schools are expected to receive a much smaller share to make up for the loss of the three departing schools. In the Sun Belt, which just recently extended its ESPN deal, new schools won’t receive a conference payout this year but will receive a full share beginning next year. There are also unique carve-outs and special situations, like Boise State (more) and Hawaii (less) in the Mountain West and Navy (less) in the AAC, but these are general numbers for most of the schools.

It’s not hard to see why so many schools wanted to jump to the AAC. It’s also not hard to see why the Mountain West schools didn’t. Those two are far and away the most lucrative G5 conferences. That doesn’t mean the Sun Belt can’t compete with them on the field. But the money is different in those leagues and it’s evident in coaching salaries, facilities and other resources.

Conference USA is the only main G5 TV deal about to expire. The last round of negotiations was a mess that left the league both with poor accessibility and much less money, and it really set the conference back. I don’t know where the new deal lands, but I know access is the No. 1 factor for certain members. When schools announced their departure from C-USA to other conferences, they emphasized that all games would be on ESPN and ESPN+ moving forward. No more Facebook. No more Stadium. The money isn’t that big anyway. Making games easier to find is paramount.

Do you think that Tuesday night MACtion will be something long-term? Or do you see another option that fits ESPN’s vision for a Group of 5 college slot? — Ryan V.

At this point, MACtion is so ingrained in the brand of the league that I don’t see it changing.

Don’t forget that the Sun Belt has also had a few mid-week games for years. But I don’t see any Power 5 leagues doing that, outside of the occasional Thursday game. No schools really want to do it. It’s not good for fans, it’s not good for atmosphere. It’s only a TV move, and the leagues that feel good about their TV situations don’t want to leave Saturdays. If Conference USA’s new TV deal is ESPN-heavy, it’s possible we could see some more there. But the AAC won’t do it, and the Mountain West isn’t contracted with ESPN.

After UCF went undefeated and put a fresh spotlight on the mid-majors, G5 representation in the AP poll soared (nine G5 teams finished ranked from 2015 to 2017, compared to 21 finishing ranked from 2018 to 2020) Could we see a similar bump this year following Cincinnati breaking into the CFP? Maybe G5s being taken a little more seriously similar to the BCS days of TCU, Utah and Boise State earning high rankings consistently. — Tony S.

I hope so. I’ve been pointing out for years that the number of G5 teams in the final rankings is always more than in the preseason. The G5 never gets enough respect before the season. It takes time to build, but that has started to come more and more by the end of the season recently. I’d make the case there should have been two G5 teams in New Year’s Six bowls in 2020.

It’s also because G5 football has simply gotten better and deeper in recent years. True winning programs have been developed and sustained. Will Cincinnati take a step back this year? Can Louisiana keep things going without Billy Napier? Only time will tell. But the G5 is full of deep programs and not one-year wonders right now.

(Top photo: Mike Watters / USA Today)